The outlook for the DRAM market is bleak, at least for PC enthusiasts. For Micron, however, the situation is quite different, and the company announced record revenues in DRAM and NAND in its first earnings call since the demise of its Crucial consumer brand.
On the conference call, where Micron detailed its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, CEO, Chairman and President Sanjay Mehrotra reiterated what the rest of the memory industry has been saying: DRAM shortages will persist beyond 2026.
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Financial results
In the first fiscal quarter, Micron reported record revenue of US$13.64 billion (R$75.30 billion). This is an increase of almost 57% compared to the previous year, as well as a “significant margin expansion”.
As everyone can imagine, Micron attributes this growth to higher prices and increased demand in Artificial Intelligence data centers. And that demand doesn’t appear to be slowing down.
Mehrotra further reiterated that Micron expects supply restrictions to “persist beyond calendar year 2026.” And the company is working on multi-year supply commitments.
HBM technology is also an important factor, as it requires three times more wafer space than DDR5, and Micron predicts “strong growth” in its HBM revenue.
The company projects that the HBM total addressable market (TAM) will reach US$100 billion (R$552.02 billion) by 2028, surpassing the entire DRAM market by 2024.
Despite having closed the activities of the Crucial brand, Micron continues to supply DRAM for PCs and cell phones. And the company expects PC shipments to continue to grow.
Demand impossible to meet
Even with the expansion of revenue and production capacity expected for the coming years, Micron said it was “disappointed” at not being able to meet demand in all market segments.
This expansion of production capacity is already underway. Micron is working on two factories in Idaho, with the first expected to begin chip production in mid-2027. Plans for a factory in New York are also in the works.
The expectation is to start construction of its factory in early 2026, with production beginning around 2030.
And even with the expansion, Micron predicts that it will only be able to meet “half to two-thirds” of the demand from its “main customers”. Mehrotra says Micron customers are “concerned about long-term memory access” and are entering into multi-year contracts to guarantee supply.
Price increase
Since June, we have reported the increase in memory prices (DDR4 and DDR5). And the DRAM shortage continues to cause DDR5 prices to rise. In November, prices had already doubled for 16 GB and 32 GB modules.
Most suppliers agree that shortages will persist until at least next year and probably beyond, but some suggest that prices will stabilize soon.
Through Kabum, it is possible to purchase Crucial memories for R$ 511.25 (8GB, 4800 MHZ), R$ 1,168.09 (16GB, 4800 MHZ), R$ 5,903.99 (2x 32GB, 5600 MHZ). However, we have seen that some memories are running out of stock and others have already received the price increase seen in the rest of the world.
Source: Micron.
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Source: https://www.adrenaline.com.br/hardware/micron-preve-forte-falta-de-memoria-dram-e-admite-nao-conseguir-suprir-o-mercado/
