DRAM prices for PCs expected to fall in the first quarter of 2025

According to the latest Trendforce forecast, the DRAM market is headed for a significant price drop in the first quarter of 2025with the PC, server, and GPU VRAM segments expecting sharp declines.

The analysis considers seasonal demand fluctuations combined with strategic inventory management by buyers would be driving the downward trend.

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Personal Computers

No DRAM market for PCs, the projected price drop is between 8 and 13%. The decline is mainly due weak consumer demand and an oversupply of DDR4 memory modules.

Chinese manufacturers have increased DDR4 production, further saturating the market and putting additional pressure on prices. And while DDR5 adoption is growing, it has not yet reached the scale needed to offset the oversupply of previous generation DDR4 modules.

As a consequence, PC manufacturers are taking advantage of lower prices to increase their inventories, albeit cautiously, to avoid excess inventory amid uncertain demand.

Servers

DRAM prices for servers are expected to fall less sharply, by a margin of between 5 and 10%. The ongoing transition from DDR4 to DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) continues to shape the server DRAM market.

Leading vendors are reallocating DDR4 production capacity to new technologies to meet growing demand in data center and AI applications. However, oversupply of DDR4 memory, combined with cautious purchasing strategies by enterprise customers, is keeping prices suppressed.

While DDR5 adoption is growing, its current acceptance remains insufficient to offset the oversupply of DDR4.

VRAM of the GPU

In the VRAM segment for GPU, prices are expected to fall between 5 and 10%, mainly due to subdued demand and high inventory levels. While some production capacity has been directed toward HBM, particularly for high-performance GPUs used in AI and data center applications, demand for conventional graphics DRAM remains weak.

There is a combination of factors: the gaming and professional graphics markets have not yet fully recovered from a period of high inventory levels and consumer demand is weak, leading to a continued decline in GPU VRAM prices.

Downtrend

The continued decline in DRAM prices aligns with a trend seen over the past two years. Previous reports have indicated significant price drops in early 2023, with DRAM costs falling by up to 20% in the first quarter.

These reductions were driven by a combination of oversupply and low consumer demand.

In 2024, although the pace of decline has slowed, the market continued to face challenges. Manufacturers dealt with high inventory levels and demand remained weak in key sectors such as consumer electronics, gaming and data centers.

Additionally, the slow adoption of newer memory technologies like DDR5 and HBM has contributed to a prolonged surplus of older generation DRAM modules, further destabilizing prices.

These challenges show no sign of quickly resolving by 2025. The interplay between cautious purchasing strategies by buyers and the persistent imbalance between supply and demand is expected to keep prices in the DRAM market low.

Fonte: Trendforce.