It’s not news that TSMC is the most highly rated company in the world when it comes to manufacturing advanced chips, but now JP Morgan analysts indicate that Big Techs are willing to pour a lot of money into the manufacturer to have their orders fulfilled faster.
The information comes from earnings estimates for TSMC in these months and throughout the year. With very optimistic numbers such as income growth of 31% in 2026 and a profit margin exceeding 60%, JP Morgan explains that much of this comes from the high amounts that some companies are paying to accelerate their orders.
“We estimate gross margin for 4Q25 at 62%, over consensus (~61%). We also expect TSMC to take its gross margin in 1Q26 to between 61% and 63%, which is below our estimate of 63.1%, but above consensus (~60%) and could be an afterthought for the market,” the analyst firm said (via @jukan05).
Speaking specifically of companies paying more for orders, JP Morgan says: “The background is that 10% of total orders are being processed in an accelerated manner with substantially increased prices (half at ~50% more for ‘hot runs’ and the other half at ~100% more for ‘super hot runs’).”
Obviously, this need to accelerate the production of components is motivated by the AI hype, on the part of companies that want to secure their accelerators while investment in the area continues to grow.
TSMC earnings could lead to questions in the market
JP Morgan raises an interesting consideration regarding the amounts that some TSMC customers are willing to pay to speed up their orders. While the generation market projects margins below 60% for the coming quarters, analysts expect TSMC to achieve 62.7%, 61.2% and 60.8%, respectively, in each three-month period.
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These high numbers, above the market average, “may lead market participants to question the sustainability of this pricing model”, declares the finance company.
With growing concerns that all the AI hype is creating a dangerous market bubble, 2026 could be a defining year for the future of investment in the technology.
Via: WCCFTech
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Source: https://www.adrenaline.com.br/hardware/demanda-por-chips-da-tsmc-e-tao-grande-que-empresas-estariam-dispostas-a-pagar-o-dobro/
