If you are planning to build or upgrade your computer, the scenario for next year is red alert. The hardware market is facing a perfect storm that promises to make 2026 one of the most challenging years for PC enthusiasts.
This isn’t just run-of-the-mill inflation: we’re talking about a structural shift where tech giants are turning their backs on the domestic consumer in favor of astronomical US profits. data centers and Artificial Intelligence.
Below, we explain the three pillars of this crisis: the chaos in memories, the manufacturing bottleneck and the reduction in video cards.
1. The collapse of the RAM market
The memory market is dominated by a trio: Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. None of them seem interested in increasing supply to lower prices for the end consumer. On the contrary, the strategy is to hold back production to keep margins high.
The situation has reached such a critical point that there are already reports of users resorting to notebook memory adapters (SODIMM) for use in desktopsin a desperate attempt to escape the high costs of conventional memories, but it ends up being a palliative. After all, notebook memories inevitably also began to increase in cost.
The end of Crucial for consumers
The most impactful news comes from Micron. The company officially announced that it is closing the line Crucial for the consumer market. After almost 30 years of being synonymous with quality and cost-benefit for gamers, Micron decided to focus 100% of its resources on data centers.
The justification? The growth of AI has generated such absurd demand that they need to allocate all of their manufacturing capacity to serve servers, abandoning retail. To learn more about this impact, check out our news on the end of Crucial products for consumers.
Samsung follows a similar line: the company’s internal divisions even refused contracts to prioritize their own internal production, focusing on where the profit is greatest. Read more about how Samsung reduces production to maintain expensive memories.
2. Artificial Intelligence is “stealing” its components
The technical villain in this story is the physical manufacturing of the chips. AI-focused components such as HBM memories (High Bandwidth Memory), take up much more space in the wafer silicon than GDDR memories or common chips.
According to industry sources, manufacturing an AI product can cost up to 3 times more in terms of production area. wafer than a traditional graphics chip. Because global manufacturing capacity is finite, companies prefer to sell an expensive product to a Big Tech than several cheap ones for gamers. Even with a higher manufacturing cost, the much higher margins from a very heated market make up for it.
The ASML and TSMC bottleneck
It’s not enough to just “build more factories”. The production of cutting-edge chips depends on EUV lithography machines, manufactured exclusively by the Dutch company ASML. Each machine costs around 200 million euros (with new versions reaching 400 million). Furthermore, the vast majority of world production goes through TSMC in Taiwan. With Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Intel and basically any relevant company fighting for the same production line, the bottleneck is inevitable.
And starting a production line, to start a competition, takes not just a billion-dollar investment. It also takes time. If it were easy, believe me, there would already be companies jumping to capture this market at this great time, but any initiative now will only bear fruit several years from now.
This delay in ramping up production is one of the justifications for memory manufacturers. As the shortage is expected to last until 2028, for these companies it is not worth investing now to increase production and, when they finally scale their manufacturing lines, this high demand is already passing.
3. Nvidia and the GPU shortage
Nvidia, which today dominates 92% of the GPU market by value, is also following the money. Strong rumors indicate that the company will reduce production of GeForce (consumer) cards by 30% to 40% in the first half of 2026.
The goal is to free up space in TSMC’s factories to produce AI chips, which have higher profit margins. The practical result? Fewer cards on the shelves for gamers, and consequently higher prices.
Conclusion: Is it time to buy or wait?
The current moment is reminiscent of the “internet bubble” of the 90s. There is an excessive euphoria with AI that will eventually stabilize. However, until then, the rule is clear: companies are not your friends, they seek profit and will chase this market that is pouring in money, both because of companies that don’t want to be left out, and because of the government money being injected into all of this.
If you need to build a PC, the recommendation is to take advantage of current offers. Waiting too long can mean paying a lot more for less performance. Stay tuned to our offer groups to try to overcome this crisis. We will continue looking for the best offers, and running our tests, to look for the products that deliver the most for every penny you spend. It’s only going to be more challenging this year.
Source: https://www.adrenaline.com.br/artigos/crise-no-hardware-porque-2026-sera-um-ano-mais-dificil-para-montar-pc/
