A China announced a new five-year plan focusing on technological self-sufficiency e expansion of the domestic marketin an attempt to protect its economy from external pressures and reduce dependence on exports.
The document, released after a four-day meeting of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Partydefines the direction of the country’s economic policy between 2026 e 2030.
According to the official statement, the government intends “vastly increase the capacity for self-reliance and strength in science and technology”concentrating investments in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, aviation, transportation and internet.
The plan also seeks maintain the share of manufacturing at a “reasonable” level within GDPin a move to balance industrial growth with stimulating domestic consumption, which has remained weakened since the pandemic.
Focus on innovation and less dependence on exports
The initiative takes place amid the intensification of trade tensions with the United States and its allies, who have been imposing restrictions on the export of advanced technology to China. In response, Beijing wants to accelerate domestic chip and AI developmenttransforming the country into an autonomous powerhouse in innovation.
According to Bloombergthe new five-year plan will be detailed in March 2026, but already indicates a continuation of 2020 policywhich gave rise to the current race for local semiconductor production and the “dual circulation” strategy — prioritizing the domestic market without abandoning foreign trade.
The reading is a renewed bet on a growth model with advanced manufacturing as its backbone. The country will continue to depend on external demand, while internal demand is expected to remain moderate
Duncan Wrigleychief economist for China at Pantheon Macroeconomics
The document also signals a reduction in the use of the term “security”with 15 mentions compared to 22 in the previous version, suggesting a more balanced stance between growth and political stability.
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AI and semiconductors at the center of the plan
The new strategic cycle places artificial intelligence and semiconductors at the core of Chinese economic development. The goal is create a cutting-edge technological baseboosting local production of generative AI chips and systems, to reduce vulnerability to sanctions and export restrictions.
The government also wants to transform the country into a aviation, transport and internet powerencouraging integration between industry and technology. The emphasis on “new quality productive forces” was cited several times in the statement as a central driver of growth.
Furthermore, Beijing intends eliminate regional bottlenecks that hinder the creation of a unified national market, encouraging the mobility of goods, talents and capital between provinces.
Stimulating consumption and social investments
One of the main objectives of the new plan is increase domestic consumptionwhich currently accounts for around 40% do PIBa proportion considered low compared to other large economies.
The government intends expand the social security systemimprove access to public services and stabilize the real estate sectorwhich is one of the pillars of the Chinese economy.
However, the document maintains a cautious tone regarding new public spending. “The government will act within available means to strengthen basic welfare programs,” the statement said.
Industry analysts interpret this language as a sign of tax restrictions e prioritization of productive investments on direct stimulus measures.
To Michelle Lamchief economist at Société Générale for Greater Chinathe challenge will be to transform the plan into tangible results.
What really matters is how strongly policymakers will execute these goals. The speech suggests fiscal prudence, but also an attempt to strengthen the social protection network
Michelle Lamchief economist at Société Générale for Greater China
Moderate but strategic growth
Economists predict that China will seek average annual growth of 4.5% over the next decadebelow the 5.5% recorded in the previous cycle. The country will continue to be supported by exports and heavy manufacturing until domestic demand gains enough momentum to support expansion.
Despite the expected slowdown, the emphasis on technology and innovation suggests that the government of Xi Jinping intend redefine the foundations of economic developmentinvesting in sectors with high added value.
Policymakers still seek a balance between security and development. But some of the language indicates that the balance may tip a little more towards growth
Christopher Beddoryes Dragonomics Cave
With an eye on global technological autonomy
The proposal strengthens China’s long-term vision of becoming self-reliant in critical technology by 2030responding directly to US “strategic decoupling” policies.
For Beijing, the path of the next decade will be to technological independence and internal strengtheningwith the goal of establishing the country as a global industrial innovation center.
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Plan to resist and lead
As we saw above, China’s new five-year plan aims to reduce its external vulnerability and ensure protagonism in the next technological era.
Therefore, the bet on AI and semiconductors is both a geopolitical response as a economic strategyat a time when the country is trying to balance growth, security and industrial modernization.
Source: Bloomberg and Central Committee of the Communist Party of China
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Source: https://www.adrenaline.com.br/hardware/china-plano-5-anos-semicondutores-inteligencia-artificial/
